Madonna is on course for another historic chapter in her career. Early sales projections suggest CONFESSIONS II could debut at No. 1 on the Billboard 200, putting the Queen of Pop within reach of her 10th chart-topping album in the United States.
According to HITS Daily Double, CONFESSIONS II is projected to open with 101,000 equivalent album units, including 80,000 pure album sales. If those estimates hold through the tracking week, Madonna will earn her first Billboard 200 No. 1 since Madame X debuted atop the chart in 2019.
The race, however, remains remarkably close. Current projections place Madonna and Olivia Rodrigo’s You Seem Pretty Sad For a Girl So In Love within 5,000 units of one another, setting up one of the tightest battles for No. 1 this year. Rodrigo’s third studio album has already spent two consecutive weeks atop the Billboard 200 after launching with 485,000 units in June.
A No. 1 debut would also extend another extraordinary milestone. Since Like a Virgin arrived in 1984, every Madonna studio album has debuted inside the Billboard 200’s top three, giving her an uninterrupted streak spanning 42 years across multiple generations of pop music.
The strong commercial outlook follows an equally impressive streaming launch. Released on July 3 through Warner Records, CONFESSIONS II generated 13.09 million Spotify streams in its first full day, becoming the biggest Spotify debut ever for a female solo artist whose recording career began in the 1980s.
Several tracks fueled that performance. “Danceteria” opened with 1.841 million streams to debut inside Spotify’s Daily Global chart, while “Bring Your Love,” featuring Sabrina Carpenter, returned to the platform’s global ranking with more than 1.3 million streams following the album’s release.
The album marks Madonna’s long-awaited reunion with producer Stuart Price, the architect behind 2005’s Confessions on a Dance Floor. Drawing from Chicago house and Detroit techno while exploring themes of renewal and resilience, the project has already produced the Dance/Mix Show Airplay chart-topper “I Feel So Free” and the Billboard Hot 100 entry “Bring Your Love.”
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