Next week’s Billboard 200 could deliver one of the closest album races of 2026. According to early projections from Hits Daily Double, Morgan Wallen, Olivia Rodrigo, Ella Langley, and Charli XCX are separated by just 6,000 equivalent album units, setting up a dramatic battle for the No. 1 spot.
Morgan Wallen currently holds a slight advantage as I’m the Problem looks poised to return to the summit. The country superstar’s latest boost comes from the release of his standalone single “Been By Now.” Early projections place Wallen at the front of the pack, with Olivia Rodrigo’s former chart-topper you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love close behind at approximately 79,500 units.
Just behind them, Ella Langley’s Dandelion and Charli XCX’s newly released Music, Fashion, Film are projected to finish within striking distance, creating a four-way contest unlike any seen on the Billboard 200 this year.
Among the contenders, Charli XCX has perhaps the most significant milestone within reach. If Music, Fashion, Film climbs to No. 1, it would become her first chart-topping album in the United States. Hits Daily Double currently projects the album to debut with roughly 75,000 equivalent units, making it the week’s biggest new release despite facing fierce competition from established chart leaders.
A No. 1 debut would also represent another major commercial leap following Brat, which became Charli’s highest-charting Billboard 200 album after debuting at No. 3 in 2024. Earlier this year, she also earned her second career top 10 with Wuthering Heights, the soundtrack to the 2026 film of the same name, which opened at No. 8 with 51,000 equivalent units.
For Wallen, another return to No. 1 would continue the remarkable longevity of I’m the Problem. The album reclaimed the Billboard 200 crown in January after spending 13 nonconsecutive weeks atop the chart following its original debut in May 2025.
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